Theory of demographic transition

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Theory of demographic transition

This is the latest theory of population development, which has got the support of most of the economists and demographers of the world. This theory is based on the data of many countries of Europe. It is simple, logical and appears to be the most scientific of all theories. The present demographers are of the opinion that the population of every society has to pass through many stages. Each stage has its own characteristics. Some countries of the world are in the first stage, some are in the second, and some are in the third stage. A brief description of these three stages is given below. First stage This stage occurs in backward countries. Where the birth rate is also high and the death rate is also high. Agriculture is the main source of income – rural economy. Secondary industries are either not there, if they are, on a very small scale. There are no tertiary industries like insurance, banks etc. Per capita income is low, so children being a source of increasing income are not a liability but a capital. In agriculture, work comes out for children of every age. Therefore, a small child is also a source of income. There is no ambition for the development, education and health of the children, so there is no expenditure on them. There is a joint family system, so there is no problem of upbringing. For all these reasons, the birth rate is high in the first stage and the death rate is also high.

Kay Hoover has written that there are many economic benefits too. A.J.Cole and E.M.0 “Children contribute at an early age ……… and are traditional source of security In the old age of parents. The prevalent high death rates especially in infancy Imply that such security can be attained only when many children are born.” Industry also starts growing along with agriculture. Transportation and urbanization increase mobility. The death rate decreases due to expansion of education, increase in income, improvement in food, clothing, housing, health and medicine. But the bonds of fanaticism, customs and orthodoxy do not loosen. Therefore, the birth rate does not decrease and there is a population explosion. In the third stage, there is an improvement in the standard of living, mental development, women’s education, increase in women’s employment and awakening among women.

As a result, women start liking less children, they want to cooperate in other areas than feeding children throughout their life, there is a competition for children’s education and initiation well. Urbanization increases economic difficulties, resources start decreasing. Methods of family planning evolve.

The age of marriage starts increasing, so the expansion of the reproductive age group starts decreasing, so the Demonstration effect is very effective. So the birth rate starts decreasing.

Prof. A. J. Cole has explained in the following sentences how economic development drives people towards small family “With the development of economic roles for women outside the home, tends to increase the possibility of economic mobility that can better be achieved with small families , and tends to decrease the economic advantages of a large family. rural. All the countries of the world are passing or have passed through these three major stages. Some countries of Africa are in first stage, some from Asia are in second stage, and European countries are in third stage.

Stages of Population Change and Thoughts of Demographers In relation to the stages of population change, the Demographers have classified the stages differently. This is the reason that Prof. C. P. Blacker has given five stages, while Prof. Thompson and Nautestrin and Bog have classified all the stages into only three. Olen Kargil has given five stages while Karl Sachs has given only four stages. Apart from these, the views of Prof 0 Laundry, Prof 0 Vogue and Peter R. Cox are also noteworthy.


Stages of Population Change and Prof. C. P. Blacker

Prof. C. P. Blacker has given five stages of demographic change.

(1) – First Stage High Stationary Stage: – In this stage the country is economically backward and underdeveloped. People mostly live in rural areas and their main occupation is agriculture and agriculture also remains in a state of backwardness. Industries have not developed. Only a few consumer goods industries remain. Transport, commercial banking and insurance sectors remain in a very backward position. Due to this the level of income of the people remains very low and poverty remains prevalent in the country. Birth rate remains high due to joint family system, illiteracy, child marriage and other social evils. People are illiterate, brash, Bahmi and fatalistic, they are irritated by the methods of child custody. Children are considered to be a gift of God and a matter of luck. Having a big family is considered a matter of pride. Do not give childless parents with respect in the society

gets eaten. All the factors that increase the birth rate in the country are present. Along with the high birth rate, the death rate also remains high because people get poor quality of undigested food, due to which they remain victims of malnutrition, lack of health facilities, various diseases, epidemics and natural diseases. The population has to become the victim of the outbreaks. People live in unhygienic, sealed and skylight houses which are harmful to health. As a result they get sick and die due to lack of proper medical facilities. Infant mortality rates remain very high. Since both the birth rate and death rate remain high in this stage, the population of the country remains almost constant. This type of situation is seen in the backward countries of Africa and Asia continent.

(2) Second Stage: In the second stage, the country starts making some development economically. The condition of agriculture starts improving. With the introduction of mechanization in agriculture, production starts increasing. Industries also start developing. The consumer goods which were earlier imported from abroad are now being manufactured in the country. The means of transport are beginning to develop. The mobility of labor starts increasing. Education begins to expand. Medical and health related facilities become accessible. The standard of living starts increasing. The result of all this is that the death rate starts decreasing, but there is no significant change in social thinking. There is no reduction in the birth rate due to social customs. People do not try to have special control over the size of the family because religious superstitions and social taboos exist regarding family planning. Population increases rapidly due to decrease in death rate and no change in birth rate. As a result a situation of population explosion arises which adversely affects the economy of the country. Due to the high growth rate of population which gives a good increase in the total population every year, the level of per capita income remains low despite the increase in the total national income. In this way there is no improvement in the standard of living of the common man, people remain backward. India has passed through this transition phase in the seventies.

(3) Third Stage: – In the third stage, special attention is paid to industrialization. Advanced and modern type of agriculture starts happening. Urbanization starts happening rapidly due to the development of industries. The per capita income starts increasing, the standard of living of the people increases. There is a migration from rural areas to cities for employment. Social change happens rapidly. The status of women in the society improves. They start working shoulder to shoulder with men and play an equal part in the work. There is substantial improvement in education. People start getting inclined towards small family. Conservatives, traditionalists, superstitions and people start abandoning old customs. Attempts are being made to control the population in various ways. The already low mortality rate further decreases. The birth rate also declines. This reduces the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. This reduces the growth rate of the population. Even in this stage, the situation of population explosion persists to some extent. At present India is passing through this stage.

(4) Fourth Stage: In this stage the country is in a highly developed stage. The standard of living of the people remains very high. Men and women like to marry late. People automatically adopt the methods of family planning happily. In this stage, both the birth order and the death order are controlled and down, due to which equilibrium is maintained and there is no difference in the size of the population. After the state of stability in the population, there is only the fear of decreasing the population in future. Therefore, measures are being sought to increase the population. Today this situation is seen in the developed countries of Europe.


(5) Fifth Stage – The fifth stage is the last stage of economic development. In this stage there is less birth than death. As a result the size of the population decreases. There is full employment situation in the country. This condition is seen in highly developed countries like France. These stages are shown in the figure. The death rate is represented by a straight line and the birth rate by a dotted line. In the first stage, due to high both birth rate and death rate, the population remains in a state of almost stagnation. There is no significant change in the population. In the second stage, the death rate falls very rapidly but the birth rate remains almost constant, due to which the difference between the two increases rapidly and the situation of population explosion comes. In the third stage, along with the death rate, the birth rate also starts decreasing. But due to the substantial difference between the two, the situation of population explosion persists. In the fourth stage, both the birth and death rates fall, at one place both become equal. On reaching the fifth stage, the situation reverses. The death rate becomes higher than the birth rate, as a result of which the total K is estimated. The problem of labor supply arises.

Prof. W.S. Thompson, Prof. Bogue, and Prof. F.W. Notestein

Instead of the five stages of change in population that Blacker has given, these scholars have mentioned only three major stages of change, which are as follows
(1) Pre-transitional stage of population change This is the first stage of change in population in which there is no control over birth rate and death rate. Therefore, in such a situation, the possibilities of rapid increase in population are more. In fact it is similar to the first state of high stability described by Blacker.

(2) Transitional stage of change in population This is the second stage of change in population which can be said to be similar to the second, third and fourth stage described by Blacker. In this, however, both the birth rate and the death rate decrease rapidly. While the birth rate decreases gradually at first, after some time its decline increases. This state remains till the third stage is attained. Bog has divided this stage into three sub-stages: first (before), second (middle), third (later). In fact, this division is a manifestation of the state of rapid progress and low stability described by Blacker.

(3) The post-transitional stage of population change is the third and final stage of change, in which both the birth rate and the death rate are low. Therefore, the rate of population growth is either zero ie negligible or very less near it. This is possible because in this situation, contraceptive means and method are known to almost everyone and balance is established in the population by using them more and more. This stage is similar to the 5th stage described by Blacker.



Stages of Population Change and Prof. Karl Sachs (Prof. Karl Sax) Karl Sachs has divided the stages of population development into four parts which are as follows

(i) First Stage: – In this stage both birth and death rates are high and the condition of almost stability exists in the population. This condition is generally found in economically backward countries.

(2) Second Stage: – In this stage, due to the increase in health and medical facilities, the death rate starts declining. But due to no change in social, economic and cultural ideology, the birth rate remains almost the same, as a result of which the population increases very rapidly. This condition is found in developing countries.

(3) Third Stage: In this stage, the death rate decreases to its lowest level and remains in the order of decreasing birth rate, as a result of which the rate of population growth is less than that of the second stage. This stage is found in those countries where development has taken place in sufficient quantity.

(4) Fourth Stage: – It is the stage of demographic change where birth and death rates are at their lowest level and remain almost the same. Where the population remains almost constant, there is no visible increase in it. This condition is found in developed countries. These stages of Karl Sachs can be explained by the following diagram: Sachs thought that both the middle stages are the stages of population explosion. The first and fourth states are the states of equilibrium. It is necessary for the population to reach from one stage to another at the same time. About how long it will take to get from one stage to another, Prof. Sachs remains unanswered. First Stage Second Stage Third Stage 60 50 8 A Death Rate 40 30 20 Birth Rate 11 D 0 Time 444 Stages of Population Change and Prof. Lanudry (Prof. Lanudry) Prof. Laundry divided demographic changes into three on the basis of food supply and economic development. divided into stages. These conditions described by him are as follows

(1) Primitive Stage – It is that stage of population change in which the quantity of population is determined by the supply of food grains. Laundry was of the opinion that if the quantity of available food grains is sufficient then the death rate will be low and if the quantity of available food grains is not enough then the death rate will be high. Thus, increase in food grains increases population and decrease in food grains decreases population.

(2) Intermediate Stage:- Under this stage, instead of food grains, economic development begins to determine the amount of population. In this stage people start becoming aware of the high standard of living. People adopt preventive measures, marry late. This leads to a fall in the birth rate as well as a fall in the death rate.

(3) Modern Epoch: It is that stage of population change in which the population is neither affected by the supply of food nor is it affected by the rate of growth. At this time the country is in the peak stage of economic development. In this stage, the decline in population growth starts due to the fall in the birth rate.


Stages of Population Change and Pro



population variable


Prof. Peter Art Cox has classified the stages of population change into five stages.

1 Malthusian Cycle Modern Cycle ( Baby Boom ) 3 . 4 Provisional Cycle 5 . Population Cycle in the Long Run



Stages of Population Change and Prof. Cowgill (Prof. Cowgill)

According to Prof. Donald Olen Cowgill, the growth of population occurs in a cyclic manner. He named the stages of development as Growth Cycles. He explained that the stages of population development come one after the other in a cyclical sequence. These conditions are as follows

(1) Primary or Malthusian Cycle: This is the stage in which the development of population takes place according to the rules laid down by Malthus. In this the birth rate is high and almost constant, but the death rate fluctuates. This happens due to natural calamities. In this way, fluctuations in the death rate cause fluctuations in the population. When the crop is good, the mortality rate decreases. Due to the destruction of crops, the death rate increases again due to the effect of famine. In this way, due to cyclical ups and downs in agriculture, the population also fluctuates. This state is shown in the figure. Mortality Far Good Time M and Mortality Rate

(2) Modern Cycle: – In this cycle both the birth and death rates fall but the death rate falls relatively more rapidly as a result of which there is a rapid increase in population. When both rates fall equally, the population becomes stable. This stage is the transition period of population growth. This state is shown in the figure. The point ‘A’ is called the ‘high stationary’ and ‘B’ is called the ‘low stationary’ point in the time diagram at birth rate, where the population is stable due to equal birth and death rates. At point ‘A’ both the rates are high and equal and at point ‘B’ both have become constant at a decreasing point.

(3) Future Cycle – In this cycle, the death rate stabilizes at the lowest level and due to the fluctuations in the birth rate, the number of children starts increasing in the country. Which Cowgill has called the coming of the baby boom. But when the birth rate decreases then the situation becomes normal again. This state is shown in the figure. birth rate death time

(4) Probable Cycle – Cowgill envisions a possible cycle in which the increase in birth rate is greater than death rate. In this situation the population increases. According to Robert B. Vance, this state of cowgil has never been seen in demographic history. This state is shown in the figure. Birth rate A 65 and death rate
Population growth in Cowgill’s

(5) Population Cycle in the Long Ran Under the phase of long-term population cycle, it is usually due to decrease in death rate or increase in birth rate. On the contrary, there is a decrease in the population. The long-term population cycle is shaped like an ‘S’ curve. It is shown in Fig. Population growth cycle 0 time

Demographic Transition Theory and Development for Countries
( Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory to Developing Countries )
Getting acquainted with these stages of demographic transition will surely arise in your mind whether all developing nations will pass through these stages? Scholars are of the view that this is not necessarily the case. He is of the opinion that developing countries are facing many such problems which the developed countries were unaware of. Demographer Prof. Ashish Bose has mentioned many problems in his research.
(1) Decrease in death rate in developed countries has been gradual and over a long period of time, whereas in modern developing countries the decrease in death rate has come very rapidly.
(2) Mortality rate has come down in developed countries due to accelerated development. But the reduction of mortality rate in developing countries has nothing to do with economic development.
(3) Developed countries never suffered more than 40 birth rate whereas modern developing countries are facing 40-60 birth rate.
(4) In developed countries where the death rate decreased. Shortly thereafter the birth rate also decreased. But even after many years of reduction in birth rate in developing countries, the death rate has not come down. (5) The higher the density of population in developing countries. The developed countries did not have that much population density during their development period. (6) Developed countries were not as poor in the initial stage of their development as the developing countries are today. (7) The opportunities for international migration that existed in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries are not there in the twentieth century. On the contrary, nowadays a country cannot take recourse to other’s land to solve its population problem. They can neither take help of colonialism nor can send people to other countries. The reason for the above characteristics can be said that there are very few possibilities of adopting the same demographic cycle by the present developing countries. Gunnar Myrdal  In the words “The population cycle which would restore near balance between births and deaths , is not in sight in any of the South Astan countries, developing countries are caught in the trap of low income and rapidly increasing population. Due to which the path of economic development is blocked. Since birth control has become a pre-condition for economic development, Prof. A. J. Cole has proved by collecting the data of India that birth control increases the number of consumers per consumer. There is a possibility of increase in income of 40% in 30 years and 100% in 60 years as compared to those without birth control.



Criticism of Theory

By studying the points related to the criticism of Demographic Transition Theory, you will become familiar with its important aspect. as

This theory does not shed any light on how long the different phases of population change take.

In the first stage, the birth rate is stable at a high level, but due to natural outbreaks, there are fluctuations in the death rate, so the population growth remains variable even in the first stage.

This theory does not discuss any relationship between the different stages of economic development and the stages of demographic transition. Whereas Prof. Leibenstein holds that the stage of economic development and the stage of demographic transition go hand in hand.

This theory explains the first, second and third stages, but there is a difference of opinion among scholars about the fourth stage, some scholars believe that the population increases in the fourth stage and some believe that it remains constant. But the reason has not been clarified. ,

Economic development and demographic transition both influence each other. Infection does not occur only due to development, but infection also causes development.

This theory cannot be confirmed on the basis of data. Hence it is unfit for statistical analysis.

Evaluation of Transition Theory

From the discussion and analysis of the transition theory of population, it is clear that this theory is a universally accepted practical realistic and scientific theory of population growth. This theory considers all those factors such as social, economic, institutional and biological which affect the rate of population growth. This theory is superior to the theory of Malthus because it does not emphasize on food supply nor adopts a pessimistic view. It is also superior to the optimum theory which emphasizes only increase in per capita income for population growth and ignores other factors affecting population. Biological theory is also one-sided.

Demographic transition theory is the best among population theories because it is based on the actual trends of population growth of the developed countries of Europe. This principle is equally applicable to developed countries as well as developing countries. Some very backward countries of the African continent are still in the first stage or all the other developing countries of the world are in the second stage. Almost all the countries of Europe have passed through the first two stages and have reached the third stage and the fourth stage. In this way, this principle is practically applicable all over the world.

On the basis of this principle, economists have developed Economic Demographic Models so that developing countries can reach the final stage and become self-reliant. A similar model, the Coole-Hoover model, has been made for India, which is being implemented in other developing countries as well. Some scholars have also questioned the significance of the Demographic Transition Theory for the developing countries and have tried to make it clear that the social and economic conditions through which the developed countries have gone are different from the conditions of the developing countries today. Nevertheless, it can be said that this theory of population development has wide support from economists and demographers. It is simple, rational and has the most scientific approach among population theories.

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